Montgomery Village, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

530
FXUS61 KLWX 130109 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
909 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat, humidity, and diurnal thunderstorm chances will continue to
increase through Thursday as high pressure pushes offshore and a
weak front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will
pass through the area Thursday night with high pressure
returning for the start of the weekend. Another front looks to
cross the area Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Still one isolated shower left near the Cumberland Regional
Airport, but has shown a weakening trend with diminished
lightning activity. It should be mostly clear through the first
half of the overnight with high clouds increasing from west to
east after 09Z. Muggy with lows 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front begins to approach our area from the northwest on
Wednesday. As the surface ridge pulls further offshore, expect an
uptick in deeper moisture to the region. This creates an uptick in
shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon, that could
linger into Wednesday night as the front pushes through before
stalling near or just to our south. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible, and given the precipitable water values near 2 inches,
some flash flooding threat will exist.

A summertime pattern persists through Thursday with heat, humidity,
and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A
potent longwave trough crosses through Quebec while the stalled
front across our south will be the focal zone for developing showers
and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Afternoon highs each day in the upper 80s to near 90F, with heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s to around 100F. Overnight lows will
be muggy in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold front dissipates across northern portions of the area
Friday into Saturday. Subtropical upper level ridging will
strengthen and persists through the weekend into early next week.
This will lead to a continuation of warm/humid conditions and
decreasing t-storm chances.

Not much of a change in the overall pattern for the upcoming weekend
and early next week. The subtropical ridge over the southeastern U.S
should strengthen/build with 500 mb heights hovering between 589-592
decameters per 12z GEFS/EPS output. Meanwhile, a weakening cold
front will drop through northern portions of the forecast area
Friday before washing out/dissipating into the upcoming weekend
ahead. This front will act as a focal point for a few spotty showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon along with a slight drop in
humidity. By the weekend, t-storm chances become more suppressed
with the building upper level ridge. Any convection looks to be
terrain based or relegated to the initiation of the bay/river
breeze. High temperatures Friday and Saturday should push into the
mid 80s to low 90s, with mountain locations in the mid 70s to low
80s. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s over the
mountains with mid 60s to low 70s further east toward the
Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas.

Sunday brings on more heat and humidity ahead of a encroaching cold
frontal boundary from the Great Lakes and northern Ohio River
Valley. High temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s
for most with heat index values hovering between 95-100 degrees. A
few spotty showers or t-storms cannot be ruled out especially over
the mountains and northern portions of the forecast area given the
amplified northern stream.

Slightly higher chances for diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances exists for the early and middle part of next week. Current
12z deterministic and ensemble guidance, continues to show a fairly
amplified northern stream. Ridging high pressure remains over the
southeastern U.S with a secondary ridge over central and eastern
Canada. Caught in between the two upper level ridges is a decent
frontal zone extending over the northern tier of the U.S. Within
this frontal zone will be a series of fronts that will drop south
from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley Monday through Wednesday next
week. The first front looks to cross the area Monday before washing
out over the central and southern part of the forecast area Tuesday.
Another front will follow midweek. With the several fronts crossing
expect an uptick of shower and thunderstorm chances mainly during
the afternoon/evening hours. Any storms that we do see Friday into
early next week will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy ground fog and low stratus is likely to develop again
late tonight, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Some
terminals, around CHO/MRB specifically, could get down to LIFR.
These low clouds will be slow to dissipate Wednesday morning.

Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons. These could produce brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions at any terminal. Most of the activity should dissipate
in the evening each day.

A weak cold frontal boundary will lead to some temporary reductions
Friday afternoon and evening due to showers/thunderstorms.
Additional reductions are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours this weekend as the front dissipates nearby. Convection
overall will be fairly spotty this weekend given the strengthening
subtropical ridge overhead. Winds Friday will be out of the east and
southeast Friday into Saturday at less than 15 kts. Winds will
switch back south and southwest Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are forecast to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday.
The main concern for mariners will be from afternoon thunderstorms
that return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Special Marine
Warnings may be needed at times for strong gusty winds. A cold front
will also cross the area, though it will only bring a brief wind
shift.

Sub-SCA level winds will continue through the period. Winds will
remain light out of the east and southeast Friday and Saturday at
less than 15 kts. This is due in part to a dissipating frontal
boundary over the region. Winds will switch to the south and
southwest Sunday and Monday at less than 15 kts. Some southerly
channeling remains possible Monday into Tuesday over the open
waters, but overall confidence is low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tidal anomalies look to continue through Wednesday given
the recent full moon and light winds. While minor tidal flooding is
not expected, some cycles could go into Action stage during the high
astronomical tides (especially at Annapolis and perhaps
Dahlgren/Alexandria).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...